Expert Answer:The Road to Tarin Kwot Intelligence Analysis Brief

  

Solved by verified expert:The same thing as the one you did in here “https://www.studypool.com/discuss/11044019/intelli…” I have attached the assignment. You should read the case then answer the question with 2-8 bullet points starting with the strongest evidence to the weakest. You should only use the case as a reference don’t use outside sources. Please see the sample that I attached and follow the same language and format. it should be about 800 word. I attached some information that could help you. The Case is ” The Road to Tarin Kwot”
brief_three.docx

case_6_the_road_to_tarin_kwot.pdf

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sample_brief_3_swot_analysis_north_korea.docx

swot_analysis_template.docx

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Brief Three
Issue:
Idea of building a road to Tarin Kowt, Afghanistan
Information for brief:
Case 6 “The Road to Tarin Kwot” found in Brightspace
Objective:
Learn by doing structured analysis of information and writing a bottomline
assessment of what the provided information tells you. You must
employ key assumptions
checks and quality of information checks in preparing your brief. You
must also employ SWOT
analysis in the preparation of your brief. You must convincingly answer
the key intelligence
questions using analytic reasoning and evidence.
Key Intelligence Questions:
Why is building the road to Tarin Kwot important to American
security goals in Afghanistan? What factors could threaten the
operation to build the road?
What resources and tactics can the USA military bring to bear to achieve
mission success in
building the road?
Customer:
US Army
Leveraging North Korea to Denuclearize
Key Judgments





We assess with high confidence that North Korea’s nuclear weapons almost certainly pose a
very significant threat to the security of the continental United States.
We assess with high confidence that it is very unlikely that the United States will be able to
persuade North Korea to denuclearize.
We assess with high confidence that it is very likely that the North Korean regime views nuclear
weapons as key to its regime survival.
We assess with high confidence that it is very likely that China and Russia want an allied and
stable North Korea more than they want a denuclearized North Korea.
We assess with high confidence that while the use of economic incentives to leverage North
Korea into denuclearization is the best available policy option, such incentives have a low
probability of success.
We assess that North Korea’s nuclear weapons almost certainly pose a direct threat to the security of
the United States.
• The Intelligence Community assess with high confidence that the US is almost certainly viewed
as an existential threat by the North Korean regime.
• North Korea poses a very significant threat to the United States because it has miniaturized
nuclear warheads that can be mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking
the United States.
• The US DIA assessed in 2017 that North Korea very likely has up to 60 nuclear warheads in its
arsenal.
• North Korea has the Hwasong-15 nuclear-capable missile, which has a range of 13,000 km.
We assess with high confidence that it is very unlikely that the United States will be able to persuade
North Korea to denuclearize.
• As noted above, the North Korean regime views the United States as an existential threat.
• In the face of such a threat, North Korea would be very unlikely to abandon its nuclear arsenal.
• Furthermore, nuclear weapons are seen by the North Korean regime as a way for North Korea
regime to develop the status as a legitimate global power.
We assess with high confidence that it is very likely that the North Korean regime views nuclear
weapons as key to its regime survival.
• The North Korean regime has developed sophisticated delivery systems, including
intercontinental ballistic missile systems capable of reaching the United States, in order to make
its nuclear weapons force a credible deterrent against the United States.
• The North Korean regime has weathered years of very punishing economic sanctions in order to
develop it nuclear weapons. This is an indication of the importance of these weapons to the
regime.
1

The nuclear weapons program has come at very high domestic economic cost to the regime, as
it has used its limited resources to fund this program at the cost of other military and civilian
programs in high need of funding.
We assess with high confidence that it is very likely that China and Russia want an allied and stable
North Korea more than they want a denuclearized North Korea.
• China and Russia are North Korea’s primary allies. They supply North Korea with weapons,
military advice, and technological aid. These countries stand by North Korea, despite their
desire for North Korea to not develop nuclear weapons, because it is more important to them to
maintain a stable and friendly regime in North Korea than to have a de-nuclearized North Korea.
• From the perspective of China and Russia, North Korea in its present political configuration is
more desirable than a unified Korea that is allied with the United States.
• A unified, pro-US Korea would possibly mean that US military forces would be able to deploy on
the border of Russia and China, as they share a border with North Korea. That is an
unacceptable scenario for both Russia and China.
We assess with high confidence that while the use of economic incentives to leverage North Korea into
denuclearization is the best available policy option, such incentives have a low probability of success.
• The North Korean leadership has shown that is very interested in getting out from sanctions and
establishing global economic ties to help its ailing economy.
• North Korea’s economy is in crisis. The nominal GDP/capita in North Korea is $1,300. The same
is $30,000 in South Korea. North Korea also suffers from very high unemployment, 26%, despite
is socialist economic system. North Korea has also suffered from very high rates of famine and
malnutrition in global comparison.
• The Stalinist nature of economic management, international sanctions, the disproportionate
emphasis on military spending, the lack of access to global trade, and the very low rate of capital
investment all plague the North Korean economy.
• While the North Korean regime wants global economic access and aid, it will very unlikely
abandon what it views as the key to its regime survival, it nuclear forces, in order to secure
those things.
2

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